Tag Archives: Warren Buffett

Buying Stocks On the Dip

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“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful.” ~Warren Buffett

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett added shares of companies during the market downturn. He has been acquiring stocks on the dip during the recent quarter’s market downturn and bulking up his stakes in oil companies such as Occidental Petroleum (OXY)

Buying a ‘Wonderful Company at a Fair Price’

The most important concept to appreciate when buying stocks is that price is what you pay for a stock, and value is what you get. Paying too high a price can decimate returns and increase your investing risk. 

To delve deeper, the value of a stock is relative to the number of earnings or cash flow the company will generate over its lifetime. In particular, this value is determined by discounting all future cash flows back to a present value, or intrinsic value.

Buffett has said that “it is much better to buy a wonderful business at a good price than a good business at a wonderful price”.

Buffett’s investing style has been buying stocks on sale priced below its intrinsic value. He has never been one that favors acquiring commodities, but higher inflation rates could have played a role, Thomas Hayes, chairman of Great Hill Capital in New York, commented.

“As for Buffett buying shares in OXY, I wouldn’t make too much on it,” Hayes said. “Historically, he has avoided investing in commodity stocks. Today he sees it as a hedge against inflation and a potential supply/demand imbalance.”

Inflation is the biggest strain on the economy. While the pace of inflation eased slightly during the month of April, investor sentiment towards the Fed’s pace of tightening remains mixed.

The fact that he is deploying his war chest of cash is a strong indication that he and his lieutenants believe that there are undervalued stocks out there,” he said. “This doesn’t mean he believes that the market is undervalued or will rebound in the near future, but that some companies are compelling buys. This is a good signal for value investors.”

Buffett’s energy investments demonstrate the 91-year old’s investing strategy of acquiring shares in companies that have low valuations and shareholder returns in the form of dividends and buybacks, Art Hogan, chief market strategist B Riley Financial, told TheStreet.

References:

  1. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/buffett-buying-stocks-on-the-dip

Warren Buffett Defines “True Success”

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“True success’ in business and life has nothing to do with money.

In an interview, legendary investor Warren Buffett offered his definition for “true success.”

“Well, I’ve said many times that, if you get to be 65 or 70 and later, and the people that you want to have love you actually do love you, you’re a success,” Buffett said in the Yahoo Finance interview.

Buffett doesn’t believe money or power or social status makes a person successful. “I know people who have a lot of money, and they get testimonial dinners and they get hospital wings named after them. But the truth is that nobody in the world loves them,” said Buffett. “If you get to my age in life and nobody thinks well of you, I don’t care how big your bank account is, your life is a disaster.”

Buffett offers three pieces of advice for people looking to succeed in business and life.

  • Invest in yourself, and in particular, try to improve your communication skills. “If you can’t communicate to somebody, it’s like winking at a girl in the dark,” Buffett quipped.
  • Take care of your mind and body. “You get exactly one mind and one body in this world. And you can’t start taking care of it when you’re 50,” he said.
  • You should associate yourself with others who “are better than you are.” He added, “Basically, you’ll go in the direction of the people that you associate with. And you want to have the right heroes.”

Key takeaway — the amount you are loved — not your wealth or accomplishments — is the ultimate measure of success in life. “The problem with love is that it’s not for sale,” Buffett explains. “The only way to get love is to be lovable. It’s very irritating if you have a lot of money. You’d like to think you could write a check: I’ll buy a million dollars’ worth of love. But it doesn’t work that way. The more you give love away, the more you get.”

The most important lesson of a life well-lived, according to Buffett, has nothing to do with wealth and everything to do with the most powerful human emotion: love. 

“Basically, when you get to my age, you’ll really measure your success in life by how many of the people you want to have love you actually do love you.

I know many people who have a lot of money, and they get testimonial dinners and they get hospital wings named after them. But the truth is that nobody in the world loves them.

That’s the ultimate test of how you have lived your life. The trouble with love is that you can’t buy it. You can buy sex. You can buy testimonial dinners. But the only way to get love is to be lovable.

It’s very irritating if you have a lot of money. You’d like to think you could write a check: I’ll buy a million dollars’ worth of love. But it doesn’t work that way. The more you give love away, the more you get.” Warren Buffett, The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life by Alice Schroeder

References:

  1. https://money.yahoo.com/warren-buffett-definition-success-174700744.html
  2. https://selfmadesuccess.com/warren-buffett-success-quotes/
  3. https://app.landit.com/articles/buffets-5-step-process-for-prioritizing-true-success
  4. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/billionaire-warren-buffett-says-this-is-the-only-measure-of-success-that-matters.html‬
  5. https://www.inc.com/marcel-schwantes/warren-buffett-says-it-doesnt-matter-how-rich-you-are-without-this-1-thing-your-life-is-a-disaster.html

The Importance of Return on Equity

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ROE measures how much profit a company generates per dollar of shareholders’ equity.

Return on equity (ROE) is a must-know financial ratio. It is one of many numbers investors can use to measure return and support investing decision. It measures how many dollars of profit are generated by a company’s management for each dollar of shareholder’s equity.

The metric reveals just how well the company utilizes its equity to generate profits.  It reveals the company’s efficiency at turning shareholder investments into profits and explains, mathematically, the ratio of a company’s net income relative to its shareholder equity.

ROE is very useful for comparing the performance of similar companies in the same industry and can show you which are making most efficient use of their (and by extension investors’) money.

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett uses ROE as part of his investment decision making process. Buffet cares deeply about a company that uses its money wisely and efficiently. He believes that a successful stock investment is a result first and foremost of the underlying business; its value to the owner comes primarily from its ability to generate earnings at an increasing rate each year.

Buffett examines management’s use of owner’s equity, looking for management that has proven it is able to employ equity in new moneymaking ventures, or for stock buybacks when they offer a greater return.

What is ROE

Return on equity is a ratio of a public company’s net income to its shareholders’ equity, or the value of the company’s assets minus its liabilities. This is known as shareholders’ equity because it is the amount that would be divided up among those who held its stock if a company closed.

The basic formula for calculating ROE simply is to divide net income from a given period by shareholder equity. The net earnings can be found on the earnings statement from the company’s most recent annual report, and the shareholder equity will be listed on the company’s balance sheet. The specific ROE formula looks like this:

ROE = (Net Earnings / Shareholders’ Equity) x 100 or EPS / Book Value

“ROE tells you how good or bad management is doing with your investment,” says Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners in Bethesda, Maryland. “Higher ROEs generally stem from profitable businesses that enjoy competitive advantages within a given industry.”

A high ROE doesn’t always mean management is efficiently generating profits. ROE can be affected by the amount that a company borrows.

Increasing debt can cause ROE to grow even when management is not necessarily getting better at generating profit. Share buybacks and asset write-downs may also cause ROE to rise when the company’s profit is declining.

On the other hand, idle cash in excess of what the business needs to continue operations reduces the apparent profitability of the company when measured by return on equity. Distributing idle cash to shareholders is an effective way to boost its return on equity.

Key Takeaway

Return on Equity measures how efficiently a company generates net income based on each dollar invested by company’s shareholders.

A steady or increasing ROE is a company that knows how to successfully reinvest their earnings. This is important because most companies retain their earnings in the equity of the business.

A declining ROE is symbolic of executive management that is unable to successfully reinvest their capital in income producing assets. Companies like this should elect to pay most of their earnings to shareholders as dividends.

References:

  1. https://smartasset.com/investing/return-on-equity
  2. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/roe-return-on-equity/
  3. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-ways-improve-return-equity-2015-01-21
  4. https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/what-is-return-on-equity-the-ultimate-guide-to-roe

Buffett on Inflation

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“Inflation often feels like an abstract concept, but it hits everyday people the hardest.” Warren Buffett

Inflation is when the dollars in your wallet lose their purchasing power — either because the money supply has dramatically increased or because prices have surged, according to Bankrate.com.

Effectively, inflation occurs when the cost of goods and services in the economy goes up over a sustained period of time. Yet, inflation doesn’t happen overnight, and it also doesn’t happen when the cost of one particular good or service goes up.

From an economics perspective, inflation refers to price increases to the broader economy. And, price increases aren’t always synonymous with inflation — and some economic experts say a little bit of inflation is actually good for the economy. That’s for two main reasons: One, it prevents a deflationary trap, which experts say can be even worse than deflation because money loses value. Another reason is because households make better financial decisions when they expect stable and low prices.

“We may see prices rise on certain things like gas or milk, but it’s not necessarily inflation unless you see prices rising sort of across the board, across many different products and services,” says Jordan van Rijn, senior economist at the Credit Union National Association (CUNA).

The Berkshire CEO described high inflation as a “tax on capital” that discourages corporate investment. The “hurdle rate,” or the return on equity needed to generate a real return for investors, climbs when prices rise, Buffett said. “The average tax-paying investor is now running up a down escalator whose pace has accelerated to the point where his upward progress is nil,” Buffett added.

Buffett pointed out inflation can hurt more than income taxes, as it’s able to turn a positive return on investment into a negative one. If prices have climbed enough, people who make a nominal return on their investment may be left with less purchasing power than before they invested.

Inflation Causes

Given the federal government’s unprecedented loose monetary policy, fiscal spending spree and money-printing splurge over the last year, many economists have warned that such fiscal irresponsibility could result in a destructive wave of inflation.

‘I worry about inflation. I do not believe inflation is going to be transitory.’ Larry Fink, chairman and CEO, BlackRock Inc.

Defenders of federal government pandemic monetary and fiscal interventions have insisted that any resulting price inflation is just transitory. But recent data is showing that price inflation is hitting new highs and many economists believe that inflation is deep rooted and non-transitory.

However, the June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows prices once again sharply on the rise. From June 2020 to June 2021, the data show that consumer prices rose a staggering 5.4 percent. Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of BlackRock Inc., isn’t convinced by the Federal Reserve’s arguments that U.S. inflation pressures will fade away once supply bottlenecks and other temporary factors resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic fade away.

Economists lump inflation causes into two categories: demand-pull and cost-push inflation.

Cost-push occurs when prices increase because production is more expensive; that can include rises in labor costs (wages) or material prices. Firms pass along those higher costs in the form of higher prices, which then cycles back into the cost of living.

On the flip side, demand-pull inflation generates price increases when consumers have resilient interest for a service or a good.

While price inflation has many causes, much of the current inflation can be traced back to the policy of the Federal Reserve. The Fed essentially created trillions of new dollars to pump into the economy in the name of “pandemic stimulus.”

“The quantity of money has increased more than 32.9% since January 2020,” Federal Economic and Education (FEE) economist Peter Jacobsen explained in May. “That means nearly one-quarter of the money in circulation has been created since then. If more dollars chase the exact same goods, prices will rise.” 

“We are seeing very substantial inflation,” Warren Buffet said at a recent shareholder meeting. “It’s very interesting. We are raising prices. People are raising prices to us and it’s being accepted.”

The typical person’s standard of living declines as a result of price inflation, because what really matters is not what number appears on your paycheck but the purchasing power of your paycheck. Working-class Americans suffer tremendously when their energy bill increases by nearly 25 percent in just one year, for example.

It is not a secret that stocks, like bonds, do poorly in an inflationary environment, according to Warren Buffett.

“There is no mystery at all about the problems of bondholders of in an era of inflation. When the value of the dollar deteriorates month after month, a security with income and principal payments denominated in those dollars isn’t going to be a big winner” Buffet states. “You hardly need a Ph.D. in economics to figure that one out.”

Regarding stocks, the conventional wisdom believes “…that stocks were a hedge against inflation. The proposition was rooted in the fact that stocks are not claims against dollars, as bonds are, but represent ownership of companies with productive facilities. These, investors believed, would retain their value in real terms; let the politicians print money as they might.”

The main reason it, stocks as a hedge against inflation, do not turn out the way conventional wisdom believed, according to Buffett, is that “stocks, in economic substance, are really very similar to bonds”.

References:

  1. https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/what-is-inflation/
  2. https://fee.org/articles/inflation-just-hit-a-13-year-high-here-s-why-you-should-care/
  3. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-warned-inflation-prices-tapeworm-investors-businesses-2021-5
  4. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/12/warren-buffett-explains-how-to-invest-in-stocks-when-inflation-rises.html
  5. https://fee.org/articles/the-costs-are-just-up-up-up-warren-buffett-issues-grave-warning-about-inflation/
  6. https://fortune.com/2011/06/12/buffett-how-inflation-swindles-the-equity-investor-fortune-classics-1977/
  7. http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Inflation-Swindles-the-Equity-Investor.pdf

A Wealth of Wisdom

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“By periodically investing in an index fund, the know-nothing investor can actually out-perform most investment professionals.” Warren Buffet

Warren E. Buffett, Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., and Charlie T. Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., provide “A Wealth of Wisdom” in this CNBC video:

https://youtu.be/rQJWHocG-50

Berkshire owns American-based property, plant and equipment – the sort of assets that make up the “business infrastructure” of the U.S. – with a GAAP valuation exceeding the amount owned by any other U.S. company. Berkshire’s depreciated cost of these domestic “fixed assets” is $154 billion.

 

References:

  1. https://berkshirehathaway.com/2020ar/2020ar.pdf

Successful Long Term Investing

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“All there is to investing is picking good stocks at good times and staying with them as long as they remain good companies.” Warren Buffett

You need courage, a long term focus, and the discipline to adhere to a long term plan to buy stocks when the markets are turbulent, stock prices are melting down, and the economy is in a deep slump, and the outlook for corporate earnings over the subsequent quarters is unfavorable. In Warren Buffett’s view, “Widespread fear is your friend as an investor because it serves up bargain purchases.” Thus, smart long-term investors love when the prices of their favorite stocks fall, as it produces some of the most favorable buying opportunities. According to Buffett, “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.”

“The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble…We want to buy them when they’re on the operating table.” Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett

Additionally, investors must focus on the long term — a minimum of seven to ten years — and look for high-quality, blue-chip companies that have fortress like balance sheets and can generate extraordinary free cash flow. In the short term, equity markets tend to swing wildly from day to day on the smallest of news, trend and sentiment, and celebrate or vilify the most inane data points. It’s important not to get caught up in the madness but stick to your homework. Warren Buffett quipped that, “If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes.”

Invest in well-managed, financially strong businesses that sell goods and services for which demand is consistently strong (think food, consumer goods, and medicines), since it’s essential to keep capital preservation and margin of safety at the top of your priority list when deciding how to invest your money. As Buffett says, “Whether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.”

Businesses that are well managed and that have strong balance sheets typically display certain characteristics:

  • They carry little or no debt.
  • They generate enough free cash flow (earnings plus depreciation and other noncash charges, minus the capital outlays needed to maintain the business) that they don’t have to raise equity or sell debt.
  • They have a proven history of management excellence.
  • They have abundant opportunities for reinvesting capital (or clear policies for returning excess capital to shareholders), and their leaders boast an outstanding record of allocating capital.
  • They have a durable competitive advantage which could mean cost advantages, a strong brand name, or something else.
  • In addition, they are global in scope. After all, 95% of the world’s population lives outside the U.S., and economic growth is likely to be greater abroad than at home.

“We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” Warren Buffett

To be a successful long term investor, it’s essential to filter out the short-term noise. Most of the chatter from Wall Street and in the financial entertainment media headlines is just that: chatter you can and should ignore. “We’ve long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. According to Buffett, “Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.”

“The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage.” Warren Buffet

If You’re Not Investing You’re Doing it Wrong

“Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value.” Warren Buffett

Investing in equities delivers higher returns than bond or cash investments over the long term but is accompanied by a higher exposure to market risk. Investing in fixed income investments offers more modest return potential and risk exposure. Investors can invest in cash as a low- risk, low-return strategy, which is ideal for short-term savings goals or to balance out the risks of stock and bond investments. Ideally, investors’ asset allocations should reflect their goals, risk tolerance, time horizon, income and wealth, and other personal factors.

“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd.” Warren Buffett

References:

  1. https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/t038-c000-s002-7-blue-chips-to-hold-forever.html
  2. https://www.fool.com/investing/best-warren-buffett-quotes.aspx
  3. https://www.ruleoneinvesting.com/blog/how-to-invest/warren-buffett-quotes-on-investing-success/
  4. https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/how-america-invests-2020.pdf

Quote of the Week

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“So smile when you read a headline that says ‘Investors lose as market falls.’ Edit it in your mind to ‘Disinvestors lose as market falls—but investors gain.’ Though writers often forget this truism, there is a buyer for every seller and what hurts one necessarily helps the other.” Warren Buffett, billionaire investor, and Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Berkshire-Hathaway

“The most common cause of low prices is pessimism—some times pervasive, some times specific to a company or industry. We want to do business in such an environment, not because we like pessimism but because we like the prices it produces. It’s optimism that is the enemy of the rational buyer.” Warren Buffett

Additionally, Buffett said, “We don’t have to be smarter than the rest, we have to be more disciplined than the rest.”

More from Warren Buffett: