Time in the market, not timing the market
Investors have a bad tendency to do the wrong thing at the wrong time with regards to investing decisions. They want to panic sell when the market is getting hit really bad (sell low) or they fear that they’re missing out on the market rally and buy when markets start to go up (buy high). Successful investors know that it is impossible to predict a stock’s outcome. Any stock can result in a potential profit or loss, but the hope of “hitting it big” in the markets has led plenty of investors to try and time the market. Instead, it’s importance of investors to have a clear idea of their goals, as well as the time frame for their financial plan.
Focus on time in the market – not trying to time the market
Timing the market involves trying to predict the future price trend of a stock and the market. As a result, there is a high probability of failure with this strategy, because no consistently predict the future of the markets. Although it sounds ideal to buy stock at a low price and sell it shortly after at a higher price for a profit, it’s often too good to be true. There are always people who get lucky, but that’s exactly what it is: luck. Essentially, someone may have luck with one stock, but lose it all on the next trade.
“The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. I don’t even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently.” John Bogle
It can be tempting to try to sell out of stocks to avoid downturns, but it’s nearly impossible to time it right. If you sell and are still on the sidelines during a recovery, it can be difficult to catch up. Missing even a few of the best days in the market can significantly undermine your performance.
The most important course of action for investors is patience and maintaining a long-term mindset. History has repeatedly demonstrated the value for investor to stay invested in the market, even during a market sell off. Going back to 1930, if you had stayed exposed to the equity market, your returns would have been around 15,000%.
If you missed the top 10 performing days of each decade since 1930 because of mistiming the market over that period, your returns would be a mere 91%. And missing even a few days as the market rebounds can significantly diminish your returns, research from JP Morgan shows.
Keep perspective: Downturns are normal and typically short
Market downturns may be unsettling, but history shows stocks have recovered and delivered long-term gains. Over the past 35 years, the stock market has fallen 14% on average from high to low each year, but still managed gains in 80% of calendar years, according to Fidelity.
Investors must ignore the urge to panic and sell off their investments. Perspective is what is important during days like these and long term perspective is key. No one can consistently time the market and one of the most important factors in building wealth is time in the market.
Essentially, you don’t want to sell off your stock positions when the market has a bad day. Instead, ride it out. Research indicates that over the long-term, you reap the rewards of the power of compounding by staying invested in the market.
Rather than give in to emotion, stay the course. The wealthy are in the market for the long term. The headlines are scary, but there’s always going to be a new threat to investors, whether it’s election fears or whatever the Fed will do next.
References:
- https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/bofa-keith-banks-warns-investors-against-trying-to-time-the-market.html
- https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-importance-of-time-in-the-market-vs-timing-the-market-301113822.html
- The hypothetical example assumes an investment that tracks the returns of the S&P 500® Index and includes dividend reinvestment but does not reflect the impact of taxes, which would lower these figures. There is volatility in the market, and a sale at any point in time could result in a gain or loss. Your own investing experience will differ, including the possibility of loss. You cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500® Index, a market capitalization–weighted index of common stocks, is a registered trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., and has been licensed for use by Fidelity Distributors Corporation.
- https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/investing-ideas/six-tips