Trade Storm and Volatility

These have been stormy days…U.S. and global equity markets are in turmoil because of factors related to U.S. – China trade tensions. The current market sell-off has punished U.S. equity stocks driving them to levels well below recent highs and has driven many domestic stocks to 52-week records low prices.

Although most observers continue to forecast that a trade deal will be reached between the two trading partners and two largest global economies since successfully negotiating a trade agreement would be in each nation’s best long-term political and economic interest. However, in the short term, global equity markets are in a tizzy due to the break down in trade talks and the tit-for-tat increase in trade tariffs that went into effect over the weekend effecting Chinese imported goods into the U.S., and China’s announced retaliation to increase tariffs of U.S. goods coming into China.

Currently, neither the U.S. nor China wants to appear weak and to give into the demands of the other. Additionally, the U.S. has accused China of backtracking on prior negotiated and agreed to key trade commitments. In a recent NYTimes article, they reported that POTUS is betting on the strength of the U.S. economy to withstand the impact of the escalating trade tensions and increasing tariffs.

Let’s not overlook the fact that China with respect to global trade has been a serial bad actor for many decades. In fact, the Chinese coerce foreign companies wanting to provide goods and services in China to partner with and transfer intellectual property to a domestic Chinese company; they run roughshod over WTO rules by erecting barriers and rules to create a non-level playing field for foreign companies to provide financial and other services inside their economy; and, they encourage their business and governmental organizations to acquire western intellectual property through cyber theft and commercial espionage. Since stepping onto the global stage for trade, they have ignored world trading rules and acted ruthlessly in their own best interest.

Given current global trade turmoil, how should the long-term investor react to short-term market selloff and volatility.

Most financial analyst look at the strong fundamentals in the U.S. economy citing growing first quarter GDP, robust job numbers, and low inflation. Their belief is the economy can weather the current trade tensions in the short term. Although, they agree that there will be headwinds to the economy both domestically and globally if this trade tiff drags on for an extended period of time. Thus, given the strong economy and even stronger belief that there will be a trade deal sometime in the future, long term investors should stick to their long-term financial plan, tune out the over excited financial entertainment media pundits and take the opportunity while stocks are on sale to buy low.

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