Vaccination and Economic Recovery

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As the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated, the economic recovery is dependent upon not only the course of the virus but also the vaccination progress. One silver lining is that some of the data trends, such as new cases and hospitalizations, appear to have peaked and are steadily improving. However, for a full return to normality, vaccinations for the majority of the population need to occur swiftly.

“Recovery will depend on the willingness of people to get on an airplane, stay in a hotel, and go out to dinner,” writes Raymond James chief economist Scott Brown. “A quicker rollout of vaccines will get us there sooner, but there is also a risk that vaccines will be less effective against new strains of the virus. Booster shots may be needed.”

The number of new daily COVID-19 cases has declined from recent highs, but remain elevated. Increased social distancing, whether state mandated or voluntary self-preservation, should slow the pace (and the economy) in the near term, according to Brown. The New York Fed’s Weekly Economic Index fell to -2.28% for the week ending January 23. The WEI is scaled to four- quarter GDP growth (for example, if the WEI reads -2% and the current level of the WEI persists for an entire quarter, we would expect, on average, GDP that quarter to be 2% lower than a year previously).

Yet, there are a few reasons for optimism.

  • First, President Biden’s original pledge of 100 doses in his first 100 days has been increased to 150 million as production and distribution capabilities expand. Purchasing 100 million doses of each of the high-efficacy Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is a positive.
  • Second, more experience should allow state administrators to improve communications and streamline the distribution process of the vaccine at the local level to maximize daily inoculations.
  • Third, while additional vaccines such as AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson have a lower efficacy rate than Modern and Pfizer, they will provide further accessibility (assuming emergency use authorization (EUA) is granted by the FDA) for people to receive some level of protection and hopefully avoid hospitalization.
  • The bottom line is that more effective distribution and additional second wave vaccine options keep the expectation of a return to normality for the US economy (and likely the rest of the world) around midyear. The biggest unknown and threat to this timeline remains the potential deterioration in vaccine effectiveness against the new mutations of the virus.

    • https://twitter.com/raymondjames/status/1353402346550644737?s=21

    References:

    1. https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/economy-policy/2021/01/29/weekly-economic-commentary
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